Mkts are at mercy of Greek politics: National Australia Bk

As Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is all set to face a vote of confidence on Friday, Nick Parsons, head of research, the UK and Europe, Global Head of FX Strategy for National Australia Bank says it is "very high probability" that he would lose votes. "We would be unity government and a referendum would be scratched, so that may lead to mitigate the risk assets rally" he says.

He believes that global markets are at the mercy of Greek politics, and "we are seeing volatility remains pretty high," he also adds.

Below is the edited transcript of Nick Parsons' interview with CNBC-TV18. See also the accompanying video.

Q: There is a payment that is right in the middle of this month, the sixth part of the Greek, do you think could be a problem with that because Mr. Papandreou is now moving towards a referendum on the problem and we could have hit our shores before we even thought about it?

A: We think that this payment is made, because even if a referendum would be held had not taken place until the new year or the end of January. This is what the markets are focusing on now is the chance to actually that the referendum is held, and that's why we've seen a lot of green across the European equity markets as Greek Prime Minister Papandreou will not face a vote of confidence on Friday and it seems that there is a very high probability that he would lose a vote of confidence. Thus we have the unity government and a referendum would be scratched. So, that may lead to mitigate the risk assets rally.

Q: When was the new party to form a new government, which is the opposition that does not support a referendum on whether you believe that they are not likely to significantly negotiate their bail, which was cracked last week on the world market or Papandreou would lose a vote of no confidence be sure to cheer?

I think the government of national unity, or a change of government may also seek re-examine the terms of bailout package. However, there is zero probability that would be available to them. It is quite likely that both France and Germany to take a hard line on it and they have made clear that it was a complete and final offer.

So, we're going to be at the mercy of the Greek policy for sometime to come home, so this effect and we are seeing volatility in global markets remained quite elevated. But now, the markets are just beginning to see through the referendum, and is likely to assume that there are probably too many obstacles, which will take place and that is why we see only a bit of calm to return.

We have a hole of about 1% of the shares higher. We have also received the bond price is a little narrower. Italian bond spreads are about 10 basis points narrower than in Germany. Even the Greek government bond spreads are about 20 basis points narrower. Thus, the seashell on the front.

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